How Reverse Game Theory Could Solve The Housing Shortage: Our hardest problems — from housing shortages to climate retreat to democratic trust and technology — aren’t failures of politics; they’re failures of incentives. "This is the promise of mechanism design: It suggests our hardest problems — from housing shortages to climate retreat to democratic trust and technology — won’t be solved by better attitudes or more flexible positions. They will be solved by better architectures, by structures that treat division not as an obstacle to eliminate but as material to consider when building." [ed. note: mechanism design; Transferable Development Rights]
The Deep Risk That Republican Hawks Overlooked: If the Iran war goes badly, the isolationist, anti-Israel wing of the party is likely to steer the GOP’s future. - "Trump has held [America First and Neocons] in place through personalist rule. Anybody who supports Trump - however disreputable or criminal they might be - can be in the party, nobody in the party can oppose Trump, and the party's platform consists of whatever Trump has said at any given moment, even if it contradicts what he claimed to stand for yesterday. The holdover Republicans who have remained attached to the party's old identity (hawkish, pro-Israel, anti-Russia, opposed to anti-Semitism) have squabbled with its newer entrants. But those disputes could be settled by Trump, who has repeatedly declared, 'I am MAGA.'"
Infamous DC squatter sues homeowner, claims $500K in designer goods are missing
Education Department headquarters will relocate as part of Trump’s dismantling
What gladiatorial politics will bury in the midterms: Never underestimate the Democrats’ ability to make a sow’s ear out of a silk purse. - "Trump, himself a highly caffeinated creature, has been caffeine for the electorate: a stimulant, who in 2024 upended the axiom that higher voter turnout is better for Democrats. Last spring, David Shor, a data scientist, calculated that if more people had voted, Kamala Harris would have fared even worse. Trump would have won the popular vote by almost five points instead of 1.4 points, and in doing so would have won five states he lost (Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Virginia). The electoral vote outcome would have been 355-183 instead of 312-226."
House Democrat violated ethics rules, panel finds, putting her seat in jeopardy: The Ethics Committee panel cited a years-long inquiry into whether Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick misused covid pandemic money. She has maintained her innocence. - "The Justice Department brought its charges against Cherfilus-McCormick and several others, including her brother and tax preparer, in November, concluding an investigation that began during the Biden administration."
Is The End of NATO Near?: The alliance has been battered by Trump’s threats.
The Immigration Restriction Trump Won’t Try: Focusing enforcement on employers might be the easiest choice in immigration policy—after all the hard ones are made. - "For these reasons, the Democrats proposing employer-focused enforcement all offer the same important caveat: Yes to E-Verify, but only after most of the undocumented people already in the country are given a path to legal status. 'Once we have immigration reform,' Gallego told me, 'and once we have actually legalized' most undocumented immigrants without a criminal record, then strict enforcement of E-Verify is the natural next step. Last August, the New Democrat Coalition, a caucus of 115 congresspeople, released an immigration plan embodying the same logic. It proposes beefing up border security, creating new visa categories and expanding existing ones, giving Dreamers a path to citizenship, and granting legal status to noncriminal undocumented immigrants who arrived more than five years ago and pay a fine."
Welcome to a Multidimensional Economic Disaster: The AI boom wasn’t built for the polycrisis. - "The way the money moves is concerning, but so is the AI industry's underlying business model. At every layer, the technology appears to decrease the value of its assets. The advanced AI chips that make up the majority of the cost of a data center? Their value rapidly decreases as they are superseded by the next generation of chips, meaning that the ultimate backstop for all of the data-center debt - selling the data center itself - is not actually a backstop. The way that AI companies make money when people use their products is also deflationary. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others charge users for using 'tokens,' the components of words processed by their bots. This means that tokens are an industrial commodity akin to, say, crude oil or steel. But unlike other commodities, the cost of each token is rapidly decreasing owing to advancements in AI's capabilities. Kedrosky called this 'a death spiral to zero.' As the value of a token plummets, the value of what data centers can produce also falls.
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"Even if Iran and the Strait of Hormuz don't directly trigger an AI-driven financial crisis, the odds are decent that another vector could. (Remember tariffs?) Energy prices could stay elevated for years, because the targeted fossil-fuel facilities in the Persian Gulf will take a long time to restore. As the U.S. directs huge amounts of attention and military resources toward Iran, it's easy to imagine China launching an invasion of Taiwan - a scenario that terrifies Silicon Valley, because it would halt the production of chips needed to train frontier models. That's not even considering the single Dutch company that makes the high-tech lithography machines used to print virtually all AI chips, or the German company that makes the mirrors used in those machines. 'There are too many ways for it to fail for it not to fail,' Kedrosky said of the AI industry's web of risk. 'All you can say for sure is this is a fragile and overdetermined system that must break, so it will.'"
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